Monday, October 15, 2007
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Corporate Capital Management
Management has 2 basic choices on how they fund themselves:
1) Issue Debt
2) Issue Stock
If you were a manager when would you issue debt vs. stock and vice versa?
Generally it is a some combination of both but there are reasons for each.
Debt gives you better tax benefits and when interest rates are low, you might want to issue debt so you pay out less interest. Debt also depends on the credit worthiness of the company (ie AAA vs AA vs A vs BBB....etc). There are a lot of variable that go into issuing debt.
Stock on the other hand is a one and done deal. If you are public company then you already know what you are going to get. If your stock is trading at $50 a share then you are going to get roughly $50 x # of shares you are going to issue. Most likely you will get less than $50 a share since you will be adding to the total shares outstanding and diluting the stocks value but the current price is a good proxy.
So back to the question or more specifically, when would you issue stock?
The answer is when you think it is as high as it's going to get! That way you get the most bang for your buck.
The lesson here is when you hear of a good company getting ready to issue more stock - be very weary - it has a higher probability of going DOWN!
Check out WYNN stock:
1) Issue Debt
2) Issue Stock
If you were a manager when would you issue debt vs. stock and vice versa?
Generally it is a some combination of both but there are reasons for each.
Debt gives you better tax benefits and when interest rates are low, you might want to issue debt so you pay out less interest. Debt also depends on the credit worthiness of the company (ie AAA vs AA vs A vs BBB....etc). There are a lot of variable that go into issuing debt.
Stock on the other hand is a one and done deal. If you are public company then you already know what you are going to get. If your stock is trading at $50 a share then you are going to get roughly $50 x # of shares you are going to issue. Most likely you will get less than $50 a share since you will be adding to the total shares outstanding and diluting the stocks value but the current price is a good proxy.
So back to the question or more specifically, when would you issue stock?
The answer is when you think it is as high as it's going to get! That way you get the most bang for your buck.
The lesson here is when you hear of a good company getting ready to issue more stock - be very weary - it has a higher probability of going DOWN!
Check out WYNN stock:
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
CLNE from a different standpoint
Cramer on CLNE from Aug 27th
http://www.stockpickr.com/popupLinks.php?all=allvideo&url=http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10376279.html
Just a reminder that it is purely a spec play!
http://www.stockpickr.com/popupLinks.php?all=allvideo&url=http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10376279.html
Just a reminder that it is purely a spec play!
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
2 Quick Lessons
1) If you have a strong conviction about a stock - go with it. I wrote last that I would be back in on CLNE regardless of price on Monday. I didn't do it and now I have watched it go from $15.25 to $16.50. A 6% gain in 2 days. It was even up today on a down day!
2) A lesson about commissions - Buy in 50 share lots or more. Preferably 100 share lots. Think of it this way. If you buy 20 shares of a $20 stock and commissions are $10 each way (buy and sell) that stock has to go up $1 dollar or 5% just to break even. If you bought 100 shares now the stock only has to go up $0.20 or 1% to break even. Got it? Good.
2) A lesson about commissions - Buy in 50 share lots or more. Preferably 100 share lots. Think of it this way. If you buy 20 shares of a $20 stock and commissions are $10 each way (buy and sell) that stock has to go up $1 dollar or 5% just to break even. If you bought 100 shares now the stock only has to go up $0.20 or 1% to break even. Got it? Good.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Weekend News
So after doing some Saturday morning reading, I found out that COP has announced that they are going to shop a natural gas field in China to help meet a rising demand. I see this being both bad and good for CLNE. Bad because of competition and COP is a really big company that can eat CLNE's lunch. However, COP being a much bigger company may help facilitate the movement of outside companies moving in. That should help CLNE. If they can just get started in China, that should boost up the shares. Then you always have CLNE being a takeover candidate. They are already established here and in Peru. COP is in the game but what if Exxon wants to get in? An easy way is to just buy up a small company who already knows what they are doing and build off that. Can you say 20% premium?! I just see so many upside reasons to own this stock and my favorite still being it's management in Boone Pickens. I know I said that I was going to wait until 14.50 to pick up more shares but I think I am going to start layering in on Monday. I would never forgive myself if I have been talking all this talk and missed the big run up.
Other notes:
Amazon.com just launched a downloadable music site that it plans to compete with Apple's iTunes. The difference between the two is encryption. Apple encrypts its files so that you can only use it on an iPod and you can only have it on 5 iPods. Amazon has no such thing. You can download it and put it on anything. This could be huge for Amazon. I am genuinely contemplating them as an investment.
Next week (Friday) is a very important economic number. Non-farm payfolls. Last month it was negative showing just loss not growth. Although it is expected not to look good (it lags one month), it should give some insight as to how bad this credit crunch has been.
Other notes:
Amazon.com just launched a downloadable music site that it plans to compete with Apple's iTunes. The difference between the two is encryption. Apple encrypts its files so that you can only use it on an iPod and you can only have it on 5 iPods. Amazon has no such thing. You can download it and put it on anything. This could be huge for Amazon. I am genuinely contemplating them as an investment.
Next week (Friday) is a very important economic number. Non-farm payfolls. Last month it was negative showing just loss not growth. Although it is expected not to look good (it lags one month), it should give some insight as to how bad this credit crunch has been.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Let's try to get this blog going again.
The 100pt gain yesterday was mainly due to GM coming to an agreement with the UAW and speculation that Bear Stearns is going to have someone come in and take a big stake in the company. The market is poised to open up again today, but I think we end down big. Reasons revolving around housing issues again. New home sales are expected to be be down 5.2% but there is a lot more downside risk and KB Homes, who reported this morning only confirms that. See below:
*KB SEES RISING FORECLOSURE RATES CAUSING MORE HOME PRICE CUTS
*KB HOME SEES HOUSING INDUSTRY CONDITIONS WORSENING INTO '08
*KB HOME SEES HOUSING INDUSTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN
*KB HOME BELIEVES IT WILL BE 'SOME TIME' BEFORE RECOVERY BEGINS
*KB HOME 3Q HOUSING GROSS MARGIN FALLING TO A NEGATIVE 28.0%
*KB HOME 3Q CANCELLATION RATE 50% VS 34%
*KB HOME SEES NO SIGN THAT HOUSING MKT IS STABILIZING
The treasury market is already up a good amount which signals that investors are picking up safer investments. I have been raising my cash positions going into all of this strength. I am actually hoping we have a nice pull back so that I can start layering into CLNE again.
*KB SEES RISING FORECLOSURE RATES CAUSING MORE HOME PRICE CUTS
*KB HOME SEES HOUSING INDUSTRY CONDITIONS WORSENING INTO '08
*KB HOME SEES HOUSING INDUSTRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN
*KB HOME BELIEVES IT WILL BE 'SOME TIME' BEFORE RECOVERY BEGINS
*KB HOME 3Q HOUSING GROSS MARGIN FALLING TO A NEGATIVE 28.0%
*KB HOME 3Q CANCELLATION RATE 50% VS 34%
*KB HOME SEES NO SIGN THAT HOUSING MKT IS STABILIZING
The treasury market is already up a good amount which signals that investors are picking up safer investments. I have been raising my cash positions going into all of this strength. I am actually hoping we have a nice pull back so that I can start layering into CLNE again.
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